What Lies Ahead

Longtime video game aficionado Alex Navarro (of Giantbomb fame) mentioned in a recent podcast that predicting what things will be like in six months is analogous to throwing darts at a black hole.  So much hinges on controlling the spread of the ongoing pandemic...and, in the North American hemisphere, the results of the US elections this November.  A worldwide economic downturn is completely assured at this point, but whether it will amount to a slight tightening of belts or the systemic collapse of nations has yet to be seen.  I don't envy people whose job it is to market the PS5 and Xbox One X.  Despite all the doom and gloom though, video games have certain advantages over other industries.

Owing to the nature of software development, sale, and distribution, most of the gaming industry can carry on making games even when working remotely.  The problem comes in the form of a scarcity of people who can actually afford to purchase the products they make.  Across the world quite a few households are feeling a financial pinch, but by the same token people are spending less and less money on things that can't be enjoyed at home.  Even so, I have to wonder how many people are currently willing and eager to plunk down over 500 dollars on a new console?  How many have recently bought a PC for their new home office?...or how many have a massive backlog of titles they, only recently, had time to dig into?  It's very hard to answer those questions with any degree of confidence.  Anecdotally, I have a lot of acquaintances who are too distracted by real-world events to pay much attention to entertainment products (video games included).

One thing that is certainly putting a damper on everyone's enthusiasm is the lack of any truly new gaming experiences.  By that I mean shorter loading times and more on-screen detail is great and all, but where is the innovative leap forward?  What we have seen thus far is only small incremental improvements to existing design formulas.  There has yet to be anything that has made me feel like it is an experience that would only be possible on next-generation hardware.  Nevertheless, I'm sure the usual hardcore gaming crowd will scramble to buy both consoles at launch only to complain a few months later about new games being the same as last-generation games just with mild improvements to frame rates and visual fidelity.

Personally, I feel like good art direction matters a lot more than higher polygon counts and unique/interesting gameplay is what really matters above all else.  That might sound overly idealistic, but it can also be good from a business standpoint.  If you don't believe me just compare the success of the original Minecraft to its derivative spinoff, Dungeons.